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Prediction for CME (2024-07-16T23:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-16T23:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32005/-1
CME Note: Faint CME seen as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and a partial halo in STEREO A COR2. The source is an M1.9 flare from AR 3744 (approx. N18W11) with peak time 2024-07-16T22:06Z. EUV wave, opening field lines, and dimming are best seen in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is not visible in STEREO A EUV imagery due to a data gap from 2024-07-16T13:35Z to 23:35Z. While there is some field line opening associated with another M-class flare shortly beforehand, M1.6 with peak time 2024-07-16T21:24Z, the broad area of dimming is more clearly associated with this later M1.9 flare. No clear CME arrival signature seen in solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-19T20:50Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-17 05:04
 - Time at C2: 2024-07-16 23:12
 - Radial speed: 538.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 43 deg
 - Eruption location: S14E03
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 567.40 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-07-19 20:50 (i.e. predicted transit time: 69.63 hours)
Lead Time: 47.83 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-07-17T21:00Z
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